Jenan Moussa , journalist for Al-Aan TV, has shared one of the best threads about Syria on X.
In her remarkable analysis Jenan Moussa elaborates the different scenarios in the case of a fall of the regime of Syrian president Assad.
The implications for Syria, she believes could be as follows:
If HTS and allies take over Syria, she says; they will enforce a strict interpretation of Sharia law. Although there are (cultural and historical) differences between HTS and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Syria under HTS will turn into a "Taliban-light" state. HTS and its predecessor Jabhat al Nusra have a bad track record in the treatment of ethnic and religious minorities. Their powergrab will create a wave refugees. Syrian Christians, Kurds &other minorities, she believes, will try to leave, mostly to Lebanon, Europe or US.
As sectarian hatred runs high in Syria especially the Alawite & Shia populations might be under risk of serious revenge attacks by HTS and other opposition groups.
She wirtes: "Very uncertain what will happen in Latakia and Tartous areas (western coastal region) where most Alawites live. This is also the region where Russia has their important naval facility. Will Russians evacuate? Can Alawites defend this area? Totally unclear at the moment.
Same goes for people linked to Assad institutions- politicians, journalists, soldiers, police, civil servants etc. Many will fear revenge attacks by HTS &allies and will try to escape, either Lebanon or Jordan. Others might stay and hope for the best. Or be forced to repent.
What will happen to the Kurds in Syria is also very unclear at the moment. SDF controlled areas in the northeast, where also American ground troops are present, might be able to survive due to US protection. But American troops are only present east of the Euphrates River. There are no US troops west of the Euphrates. Therefore places such as Sheikh Maqsoud (Kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo city) and Tal Rifaat and Manbij (north/northeast of Aleppo) might be run over by HTS or SNA. But even Kobani and Raqqa are vulnerable because US ground forces are located at quite a distance.
Possible fall of Syrian gov also has huge implications for eastern Syria where Islamic State still has a large covert present. If Deir Ezzor falls, expect Islamic State to regroup &take over parts of east Syria & desert areas in Homs province. IS and HTS will fight each other."
If the Syrian regime of President Assad collapses, she says, it will have huge repercussions for the wider Middle East.
For Turkey, the possible fall of Assad means the following:
- Turkey will hugely expand its power and influence in Syria Via its proxies in Syria (SNA and HTS). Syria was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1516 until 1918.
- Removal of Turkey's old rival Russia.
- Turkey will be free to finish off the much-hated Kurdish forces in Syria.
- Turkish president Erdogan could send millions of Syrian refugees from Turkey back to Syria "as the war is over and Assad is gone". This would increase Erdogans popularity.
For Russia::
- Would not only loose an ally but also its base in the middle east
- It will have been outsmarted by Turkey.
- Possible end to Tartus Naval base, which was established back in 1971 during the times of the Soviet Union.
For Israel:
- Iran would be cut off from transporting weapons over land to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Beirut airport and Lebanese ports de facto controlled by Israeli naval and air forces, Hezbollah can't rearm. A major win for Israel.On top the Iranian military loses access to Lebanon and Syria.
- In the short term HTS ruled Syria will keep Syria unstable and weak, thus not a threat to Israel.
- In the long term jihadi groups traditionally get out of control; Israel would expect Western ally Turkey to reign in HTS.
For Iran:
- Iran will loose a major ally in the region, a disaster for Tehran.
- Iran will no longer be able to rearm Hezbollah.
- Regional rival Turkey expands its power while Iran finds a weakening of Shiite interests in Syria, Lebanon and even Iraq.
For the U.S.:
- They will have kicked Russians out of Syria.
- The hated Iran ally Assad after a marathon struggle finally gone.
- Hezbollah would be isolated in Lebanon.
For Lebanon:
- Lebanon might find itself cornered between two neighbours, an genocidal Israel and a head-chopping jihadi run Syria.
- With Hezbollah weakened other religious groups inside Lebanon might try to fill the vacuum; This might result in religious tension and civil strife.
- A reactivation of jihadi groups and terrorism inside Lebanon with support from HTS in Syria might be possible.
For Iraq:
- HTS victory in Syria might inspire similar groups in neighboring Sunni countries such as Iraq.
- The resurrection of Islamic State in Eastern Syria could spill over to western Iraq. A return of Islamic State to Iraq will be accompanied by terrorism and could lead to civil war.
Read the entire thread of Jenan Moussa on X @jenanmoussa