So far, 700 people have been killed by Israel’s bombardment in Lebanon. As in Gaza, it is the civilian population that is bearing the brunt of Israel's assault. The images we see are unbearable.
The conflict with Lebanon did not begin on the 17th of September, when Israel triggered 3,000 spiked pagers and injured approximately 1,500 people—many of whom were connected to Hezbollah’s social networks, including hospital workers, doctors, and traffic police—not the fighters as was widely reported. It did not even begin on October 7th, when Hezbollah supported Hamas. This conflict goes back much further, resulting in numerous Israeli invasions, the most recent in 2006, which ended in a significant defeat for the Zionist state. Israel has never defined its borders, and it has always harbored ambitions to push them northward. The extremist government of Benjamin Netanyahu is a coalition of religious zealots, far-right politicians, and settler fanatics. It believes the time is ripe to "cleanse" the land of Israel of what it views as the "subhuman" Palestinian population.
The settlement movement, supported by extremist minister Smotrich, published a map to promote the construction of illegal settlements inside Lebanon, showing "the new Hebrew names of the settlements in southern Lebanon.
Many have questioned how the events of October 7th were allowed to happen. Was it an error, or was it permitted to justify the genocide that followed? We may never know. What we do know is that at least a third of the 1,200 Israeli victims of that day were killed by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) under the "Hannibal Directive," a policy aimed at preventing hostage-taking by eliminating the hostages. Additionally, reports of babies being "cooked in ovens" and mass rapes have been debunked.
Over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli bombs. According to *The Lancet*, the direct and indirectly caused Palestinian casualties have exceeded 186,000, including those who died from a lack of medical treatment, medicine, exposure, or hunger. Using the Lancet method the death toll could be as high as 300,000 by now. Let there be no doubt, this is a genocide.
The Gaza campaign has been a disaster
Benjamin Netanyahu’s declared aim was the total destruction of Hamas, both militarily and politically. That has not worked out well. It is estimated that 70% of Hamas' tunnel system remains intact, and the war has driven scores of young men to join the group. Israel has laid waste to Gaza and killed thousands of civilians, but Hamas remains largely intact and undeterred. Even the Israeli Defense Forces have admitted defeat.
Netanyahu has driven Israel off a cliff. The country is financially in ruins, its own population is in shock, and many Israelis have left the country for good. It has lost support from its few Gulf allies, such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and its standing in the international community has plummeted. Few want to be associated with a regime accused of genocide.
But stopping is not an option for Netanyahu. He needs to remain in power, as losing his position would strip him of immunity and expose him to numerous corruption charges. To divert attention from the Gaza fiasco, Netanyahu seeks another war. This time, the objective is as unrealistic as before: to force Hezbollah to stop firing rockets by pushing 25 km beyond the Netani River. However, this is likely to be an unattainable goal.
In an attempt to draw Israeli forces away from Gaza and toward the north, Hezbollah has been launching rockets at various Israeli military targets and colonies, forcing 70,000 Israelis to move south. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have successfully disrupted shipping to Israel’s port in Eilat, leading to the port’s bankruptcy.
Although mainstream media may suggest Hezbollah is already defeated, this is a grave miscalculation. Since 2006, Hezbollah has built extensive tunnel networks and bunkers filled with modern missile systems supplied by Iran. Hezbollah fighters, having gained experience in the Syrian Civil War, are now a modern and formidable fighting force. Israel’s threats to invade Lebanon may be a bluff, as its current strategy relies on a devastating air campaign that terrorizes civilians.
Netanyahu wants a war with Iran but cannot wage it alone
He needs the support of the U.S., U.K., and France. Israeli Defense Minister Katz leaked that there is an understanding with France, the U.K., and U.S. President Joe Biden, who is wary of an explosion in the Middle Eastern powder keg during an election year. A war that destroys the region's oil infrastructure could collapse the global economy. Biden promised to intervene only "if Israel is attacked." So far, there has been no serious attack, and neither Hezbollah nor Iran is willing to escalate.
Israel is responsible for about 80% of the cross border attacks according to the BBC
Israel’s window of opportunity is closing. As long as Biden remains in the White House, Israel can act with relative impunity, but financially, time is running out. General Yitzhak Brik has warned that "Israel could face collapse within a year if the ongoing war continues." If Donald Trump wins the U.S. election, the outcome might differ, but for now, Israel is provoking Iran.
The Israeli government has already committed genocide against Palestinians, blown up the Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing high-ranking generals, and assassinated Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran has promised retaliation, but so far, it has been restrained. Iran likely prefers a strategy of slow strangulation through indirect conflict, rather than a direct war with Israel. Iran seeks to join BRICS and prioritize peace, leaving the "axis of resistance" to pressure Israel.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu, like a cornered animal, grows more vicious by the day. Will he succeed in provoking a war with Iran? Let us hope not.