The article "Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost" by Big Serge offers a detailed analysis of Ukraine's unexpected military incursion into the Kursk Oblast in Russia.
This operation, which began on August 6, 2024, has sparked significant controversy and debate among military analysts. The move is particularly surprising given Ukraine's precarious situation on the critical Donbas front, where its defenses are under severe pressure. The article highlights that this new front in Kursk is far from the main theaters of war, raising questions about its strategic value.
The operation has been informally named "Operation Krepost," referencing the 1943 German offensive towards Kursk known as Operation Citadel. However, the article argues that the current situation bears little resemblance to this historical battle. The 1943 battle lacked strategic surprise and ambition, whereas the Ukrainian operation is seen as highly imaginative and potentially reckless. The use of regular Ukrainian army brigades in this operation, rather than irregular paramilitary forces, marks a significant escalation in Ukraine's approach to cross-border incursions.
Several potential strategic objectives for Operation Krepost are explored in the article. One theory suggests that the operation could aim to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant to create a bargaining chip. However, this hypothesis is dismissed as impractical and dangerous, as it could lead to a radiological disaster that would harm Ukraine itself. The article argues that such an approach would be too risky and unlikely to produce significant strategic gains.
Another theory is that the operation aims to divert Russian forces from other critical fronts, particularly in the Donbas. However, the article notes that this strategy could backfire on Ukraine. With fewer resources than Russia, Ukraine is already stretched across a vast front. Opening a new combat axis in Kursk could overwhelm Ukrainian forces, making it difficult to continue the operation without compromising other fronts.
The possibility that Operation Krepost is intended to create leverage for future negotiations with Russia is also considered. Some Ukrainian officials have suggested that occupying Russian territory could strengthen Ukraine's position in peace talks. However, the article argues that this approach is flawed, as it is unlikely that the Kremlin would trade strategically valuable regions like the Donbas for minor gains in Kursk. Furthermore, maintaining captured territory in Russia would require significant and sustained military resources, which Ukraine may not be able to afford.
Ultimately, the article concludes that Operation Krepost is a bold but risky maneuver that may not produce the desired results for Ukraine. It is described as an inventive yet fanciful attempt to alter the dynamics of a conflict increasingly favoring Russia. The impact of the operation on the broader war remains uncertain, but the article suggests that it could end up weakening Ukraine's overall military position rather than strengthening it.
Read the full article at Big Serge.