For weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government saber-rattled, promising a decisive response to the Iranian retaliation—the 200-missile strike that shook Israel.
There was lackluster enthusiasm in Washington, as Biden and his administration dug in their heels to dissuade the Israelis from igniting a major conflict, which could provoke a financial collapse just before the U.S. elections. Last week's leak of a top-secret document describing the Israeli attack plan might have delayed the project by a week, but this past Saturday, the attack was launched. Two days before the assault, U.S. neo-con Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Riyadh to assure Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of U.S. protection in case of an Iranian attack. This is akin to a mafia boss coming to your restaurant to offer protection; it’s difficult to say no. Pressure on MBS had reached a fever pitch, preventing him from joining his friends at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
There was quite a lot of back door diplomacy goiing on. Like the Iranians before their missile strike this time the Zionist state informed the Iranians what kind of installations they intended to strike. Very early Saturday morning, more than 100 planes, supported by U.S. flying tankers and rescue teams, flew toward Iran. An Israeli newspaper had warned of a multi-phase, 12-hour-long intensive and destructive attack on Persia. The first wave aimed to take out the Iranian air defenses to open a corridor for Israeli F-35s with conventional strike packages to penetrate deep into Iran. While a saturation attack was underway over Tehran and other cities, ballistic missiles flew over Rohavia and dropped their fuel tank stages. But something went wrong...
Videos of the saturation attack on Tehran circulated widely on the internet. Dozens of incoming projectiles met explosive lights in what can only be described as a spectacular fireworks display. Some observers claimed the Iranians were firing with shotguns, while others speculated that these were Russian Pantsir anti-missile batteries. Let’s remember that Russia sent a couple of fully loaded Il-76 planes with secret cargo to Iran a few months ago. Whatever downed the incoming missiles, the defense worked, and Iran did not reveal the locations of its air defense systems. These remained largely intact, preventing the incoming planes from approaching within 250 km. It appears that Israel, unable to neutralize the threat, was unable to enter. The airborne planes declared total victory, turned around, and flew home. No planes or pilots were lost; on the Iranian side, four soldiers lost their lives.
Israeli newspapers celebrated the attack, and Netanyahu boasted of a "powerful and precise" blow to the Ayatollahs.
We are still waiting for a damage assessment, but so far, what we see is more than underwhelming. Israel's aim was to reestablish deterrence, which certainly failed. Either this campaign was a flop and aborted or was a first run to degrade Irans airdefense and a preparation for future waves of attacks. Time will tell.
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi from Teheran University had this to say: "Israeli intelligence was badly deceived by dummies and decoys as well as disinformation. Iran's air defense performed very well. Some footage will be later released. Iran has learned a lot about US military technology."
Iran's government has already responded: "Zionist regime's recent overnight attack on Iran was unsuccessful, due to our robust air defense systems. However, the act of aggression itself will not go unanswered. We will respond decisively to this provocation."