The Lancet reports that the total number of deaths could have reached 186,000, approximately 7.9% of the total population of the Gaza Strip.
The article from The Lancet published on June 19, 2024, addresses the enormous challenge of counting deaths in Gaza following Hamas attacks and the Israeli invasion of October 2023. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 37,396 people had been killed by that date, a figure disputed by Israeli authorities but accepted by Israeli intelligence, the UN, and the WHO.
The numbers reported by the Gaza Health Ministry are corroborated by independent analyses, which compare variations in the death toll among UNRWA staff with those reported by the ministry. These analyses concluded that claims of data falsification were unlikely. Despite the destruction of many infrastructures, the ministry continues to collect data, though this has become more difficult. They have had to supplement their traditional reports with information from reliable media and first responders.
Due to massive destruction, the Gaza Health Ministry now separately reports the number of unidentified bodies. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 deaths were unidentified. Some officials and news agencies have used this situation to question the accuracy of the data, though these numbers are likely underestimated. Organizations like Airwars find that not all identifiable victims are always included in the ministry's lists.
Armed conflicts have indirect health consequences beyond direct violence. Even after the conflict ends, there will be many indirect deaths due to reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The intensity of the conflict, destruction of health infrastructure, severe shortages of food, water, and shelter, and the population’s inability to flee exacerbate this situation.
Using a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for each direct death, the total death toll could reach 186,000, approximately 7.9% of the Gaza Strip’s total population. A February 2024 report had already estimated that, without a ceasefire, the death toll could reach between 58,260 and 85,750 by August 2024.
The article concludes by emphasizing the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, along with measures to enable the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other essential resources. It is also crucial to document the extent of suffering to ensure historical accountability and meet the legal requirements of the International Court of Justice. The collected data will be vital for post-conflict recovery, infrastructure restoration, and humanitarian aid planning.
This press review highlights the importance of precise and independent documentation of deaths in conflict zones and the challenges associated with this essential task.
Read the full article here.